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- David Lerman
- March 25, 2009
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- Diversity beyond the traditional asset classes of stocks/bonds/cash
- Reduces overall portfolio volatility (zig/zag theory)
- Potential to increase returns along with reduction in volatility
- Returns can be generated in any kind of economic environment and bull
and bear markets
- Performance during major stock market declines has been remarkable
- Many successful pension plan sponsors have long utilized Managed futures
to generate alpha
- Typical CTA /Pool Operator has wide variety of global futures products
that are the most transparent and liquid instruments in existence
- CTA/CPO community is regulated and they trade mostly on regulated
futures exchanges throughout the world.
- ….and these exchanges have sophisticated risk management in the form of
clearing houses
- Overall, the growth of the industry has been exceptional…giving further
credence to managed futures as excellent addition to any asset
allocation strategy
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- Managed futures performance vs. other asset benchmarks over time
(including major secular bull market of 80s and 90s, the crash of 87 and
several bear markets)
- Returns
- Benchmark 1980 – 2008
- Managed Futures Funds +12.8%
- S & P 500 +10.7%
- World Stocks (MSCI EAFE) + 9.5%
- Money Market inst.
(T-bills) + 5.6%
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- Managed futures performance during severe declines in S&P 500
- Managed futures vs. other asset classes during the 2008 market rout
- Benchmark 2008 Performance
- Managed Futures Funds +18.33%
- Managed Futures CTAs +14.11%
- S & P 500 - 38.49%
- Hedge funds - 19.07%
- World Stocks - 43.07%
- Real Estate - 43.12%
- Sources: Credit Suisse Tremont
Managed Futures index, Barclay’s CTA index, CME Group, Credit Suisse
Tremont Hedge fund index, MSCI world index
- Dow Jones Wilshire Real Estate Index
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- Managed futures performance during severe declines in S&P 500
- Managed futures performance during the worst stock market declines in
recent history:
- Event S&P 500 BTOP 50 Index
- Crash of 87 -23.23 % + 16.88%
- Terrorist attacks WTC 9/11 -14.99% +
4.12%
- Iraq invades Kuwait
1990 -14.52% + 11.22%
- 1998 Russian defaults/LTCM -10.30% + 10.54%
- Tech bubble bursts 2000 -
8.09% + 19.78%
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- Returns in general….those that can overcome their fears of investing in
futures, either directly or via Managed futures sometimes have very high
expectations of returns given the nature of the investment.
- Lets look at returns from several perspectives…
- Long term returns of S&P 500 10-13% over past 75 years
- Long term returns of bonds 4-6 % over past 75 years
- Long term returns of T-bills under 3 %
- Berkshire Hathaway return since
- Inception of partnership by
- Warren Buffett 21 %
- Long term returns of the very best
- Hedge funds 25-35%
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